Credit.
SBA 7(a) loan count down about 30% in the first nine months of FY2026 (Coleman Report, 2026).
THE SNO PROBLEM
Your pipeline is
measured in months.
A sold-not-open unit is a franchise agreement that has been signed but has not opened. "We have 200 sold" means nothing until you divide by how fast you open.
Backlog in months=units signed but not openaverage openings per month, trailing 12 months
The backlog more than doubled in under two years.
From 5.0 months of openings at the end of 2024 to 11.6 in August 2026. 49% of brands hold more than a year. Small and mid-size brands hurt most, and many have one or two people doing development and real estate together.
Source: FranConnect industry data, 2026. Estimates only; we confirm your numbers on the call.
- 26.8
- 17.6
- 16.2
- 16.1
- 11.6
- 9.6
- 1.1
The pressure is after the signature.
Build-out.
Construction input prices up 8.9% in a year. 55% of contractors saw projects cancelled or delayed (AGC, 2026).
Sites.
Retail availability at 4.9%, which CBRE calls extremely low. New retail construction at record lows (CBRE, 2026).
Twelve stages from signed to open.
Real estate is the stage where time disappears. Across the industry, site search, LOI to lease, zoning and permits are named as the main delay.
- 01Award and onboarding
- 02Financing validated
- 03Market and territory set
- 04Site search and shortlist
- 05Site approval
- 06LOI
- 07Lease
- 08Zoning and permits
- 09Design and construction
- 10Certificate of occupancy
- 11Training and pre-opening
- 12Open
Highlighted stages are where real estate drives the delay.
Where does your brand stand?
Opening rate = units opened in the year ÷ units open. Closure rate = units closed in the year ÷ units open.
The middle half of brands close units at nearly the leaders' rate. Their problem is openings, and openings are mostly real estate. Only 3% of franchisor field visits go to opening support.
| 2025, all brands | Top quartile | Middle half | Bottom quartile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening rate | 15.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Closure rate | 1.9% | 2.9% | 8.9% |
| Your gap | Hold the lead | Openings | Closures |
Source: FranConnect industry data, 2026. Estimates only; we confirm your numbers on the call.
If your units open at a normal pace but close above peers, fix closures first. If they close at a normal rate but take too long to open, the gap is openings, and that's what we fix.
What's your backlog really costing you?
In 30 minutes we'll calculate your backlog in months, compare it with brands your size, and show you where your units are stuck. Free, no obligation.
Book a free call